welcome to the blog of the rebellion .

7/10/10,

Our group's report had many language, editing and formatting flaws. Our powerpoint slides were overall ok, as the demonstration would take up quite some time. With the help of Mr Wu, we have edited our report and we will be doing our rehearsal on monday (stay back).

Saturday, July 10, 2010

6/28/10,

World Weather Disasters

Report the series of weather disasters worldwide, and explain what caused

them

Discuss and propose if this type of disaster could be minimized or

prevented

May 2010

Table of Contents

Abstract.............................................................................................................................3

1 Findings..........................................................................................................................3

1.1 Hurricanes..........................................................................................................3

1.2 Volcanoes...........................................................................................................3

1.3 Lightning.............................................................................................................4

2 Minimization....................................................................................................................4

2.1 Purpose...............................................................................................................4

2.2 Scope..................................................................................................................4

2.3 Method................................................................................................................4

2.4 Limitations...........................................................................................................6

2.5 Assumptions........................................................................................................6

3 Conclusion......................................................................................................................7

References.........................................................................................................................7

Abstract

In our project, titled “world weather disasters”, we will be telling you the details of some natural disasters. Firstly we will be stating the basic description of these disasters like what it is and how it is started. We will also be telling you more about the effects of such disasters as well as the damage done. We have also come up/researched with some plans on what you should you do, should you be stuck in such a situation.

1 Findings

1.1 Hurricanes

Description

Tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, as well as high waves and damaging storm surge as well as spawning tornadoes. They develop over large areas of water, gathering heat and energy through contact with warm water and loses its strength as it moves over land. Although their effects may be deadly, such “disasters” also help relieve drought conditions.

The eye

A powerful cyclone will harbor an area of sinking air at the centre of circulation. If this area is strong enough, an “eye” will be developed. Surprisingly, weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds, though the sea may be extremely violent.

Evacuation procedures

If news report that a hurricane is approaching, this are some steps you can take. Lock all windows and bring in all outdoor equipment that can be blown away. Make sure you have a radio with you so you can listen to storm advisories. In most places, banks and ATMs are usually closed so have some cash in handy. If your house isn’t on a higher ground, go to a shelter. Lastly, DO not drink tap water until officials say its safe to do so.

1.2 Volcanoes

A volcano is an opening in a planet's surface or crust which allows hot magma, ash and gases to escape from below the surface.

Damage it does

Volcanoes are the greatest producers of CO2 in the world. However, their presence is good if they are dormant as the soil tends to be extremely fertile in the area. During eruption, there are often shockwaves of sound, a wave of ash and flying molten rock. Underwater volcanoes are often the cause of tsunamis. Though lava have killed a small number of people, the majority of damage to society a volcano does is economic, agriculture and settlements can be ruined.A caldera can cause widespread destruction and immense loss of life, destroying for dozens of miles in every direction and creating an ashfall spreading over hundreds of thousands of square miles, killing much of what lives in the affected area, fortunately those volcanoes erupt once every several hundred thousand years

1.3 Lightning

Lightning kills 80 people in the US a year and injure 300 people

Safety at home

-avoid contact with corded phones

-stay away from window and doors

-avoid showering or bathing

-unplug electrical appliances such as computers

If you are in an/a

Forest

Seek shelter in a low area under a thick growth of small trees

An open water

Go to land and find shelter immediately

In an open area

Go to a low place/indoors

2 Minimization

2.1 Purpose

The purpose of this report was to analyze different world natural disasters and find a way to minimize them.

2.2 Scope

Our group researches on several different types of natural disasters such as tsunamis, earthquakes and landslides. After research, we decided to choose the volcanic eruption as it was one that could be easily simulated.

2.3 Method

The Standard Operating Procedure of a evacuation is as follows:

Sequence of Evacuation (Standard operating Procedure)

Detection

Decision

Alarm

Reaction

Movement to an area of refuge or an assembly station

Transportation

Detection:

How it works

Initial notification that an eruption has occurred usually comes from eyewitnesses or volcano monitoring centres, but this can be a slow and unreliable process, particularly for volcanoes in isolated areas. The Met Office has developed an automatic volcanic eruption detection system using Meteosat infrared images and forecast meteorological data. The system offers half-hourly monitoring of volcanoes over a wide field of view which includes Iceland, Europe, Africa and the Atlantic.

The detection algorithm looks for clouds which exhibit characteristics consistent with them being volcanic in origin.

Shape — the cloud should have a circular shape, or a plume shape spreading downwind.
Location — the cloud top should be close to a volcano, or downwind of a volcano.
Contrast — the cloud-top brightness temperature should differ from the immediate surroundings.
Height — the cloud-top height should be at the same height as the wind used for establishing the shape and location conditions.

Clouds are identified as having the correct shape for volcanic ash by checking for good shape correlation between the actual cloud and the cloud that might be expected for an eruption cloud in the prevailing meteorological conditions.

In order to rule out as many false alarms as possible, the cloud must also pass the following checks to give sufficient confidence that it is not a meteorological cloud.

Temporal check — the cloud was not present upwind of the volcano in a previous image.
Grey level check — there are no other clouds in the vicinity at the same height.
Sudden appearance check — the cloud has suddenly appeared in the image.
Convective cloud check — no convective cloud has been forecast at that height.

The eruption detection system detected two thirds of the eruptions upon which it was tested, and could monitor the London VAAC’s area of responsibility with the production of between one and two false alarms each day. In 2004 the system was upgraded to use Meteosat Second Generation images and was implemented onto the Met Office Satellite Processing System.

Decision:

Arrange for military forces, volunteers and rescue workers to launch a full-scale evacuation.

Alarm:

Alert citizens of volcanic eruption. Tell them to prepare an emergency supply kit consisting of (if available)

Flashlight and extra batteries

First aid kit and manual
Emergency food and water
Manual (nonelectric) can opener
Essential medicines
Sturdy shoes
Respiratory (breathing) protection
Eye protection (goggles)
Battery-powered radio

And allow responsible citizens of the city to help sort everything out as they know the place better than the government does. This shall be broadcast over the radio.

Reaction:

If all goes well, the people will be assigned to evacuation spots that are not too close to the volcano but not too far from it either. Helicopters with water sprays will attempt to hose down some of the magma traveling from the volcano to the city and harden the magma to make a hardened magma wall against the rest of the magma.

Movement to an area of refuge or an assembly station:

Once the magma wall is completed, the helicopters will be able to enter the city to evacuate the citizens from the city. If the city is close to the water, ships will be used to evacuate citizens. Help from other countries can also be requested, for their helicopters to help hose down the magma.

Transportation:

The evacuees will be transported away from the volcano eruption site until everything calms down and they will be sent back to their city. The government will help in relief services and building of homes onto the land ruined by the volcano.

2.4 Limitations

In case of any discrepancies and snags, an impromptu decision will be made regarding the evacuation.

2.5 Assumptions

The volcano eruption is detected early and the head of the evacuation committee has total control over every evacuation force.

3 Conclusion

Based on our current research, we have found that there is no way we will be able to prevent natural disasters from happening. However, we can minimize the consequences and damage caused by the natural disasters, making it such that no one is harmed by such natural disasters.

References

Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org

Meteostat website www.meteostat.com

Monday, June 28, 2010

4/28/10,

I have completed the main shape of the volcano model. We intend to add in houses and Marcus will buy the ingredients needed for the experiment I think.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

4/21/10,

Earthquakes:

Earthquakes are caused by the discharge of accumulated along geologic faults

but normally earthquake it self could not be harmful normally it is the secondary events that they trigger which is normally the things that takes lifes.

Volcanic eruptions

An eruption may in itself be a disaster due to the explosion of the volcano

lava may be produced during the eruption of a volcano a material consisting of superheated rock

Tsunami

Tsunamis can be caused by undersea earthquakes

Hailstorms

Hailstorms are rain drops that have formed together into ice.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

4/20/10,

3 New NOTICES

Please sign your name after every post, Nathaniel changed the skin and for some reason the 'show who posted this' thing got screwed up and now he's trying to fix it. Hopefully he does :D

Please update me on your status on whatever you are working on, don't wait for me to go bother you because it's quite troublesome for both you and me. XD

Before the product is completed, everyone has to summarize whatever they have researched, including me.

When I say summarized, I mean all the main points of your research. Please categorize them neatly. (such as putting all the information on volcanoes under 'Volcanoes')

This is so that instead of focusing on all the unimportant points, we can instead push our focus to the important points of the research.

Please do it in this format:

TITLE

Topic of Research

Reason for Research

The Main Points (categorized neatly)

Notes about the research

Conclusion

Example would be mine:

Summary of Evacuation

Because our topic is related to a natural theme, I have researched more into emergency evacuation in case of disasters.

The Reason for this is to find out currently how the government has helped to make evacuations more efficient and fast in order to save as many people as possible.

Sequence of Evacuation (Standard operating Procedure)
Detection
Decision
Alarm
Reaction
Movement to an area of refuge or an assembly station
Transportation

The particular phases are different for different objects, e.g., for ships a distinction between assembly and embarkation (to boats or rafts) is made. These are separate from each other. The decision whether to enter the boats or rafts is thus usually made after assembly is completed.

Small Scale Evacuations
The strategy of small scale evacuations (such as from buildings) vary depending on movement ability of the individuals.
Fast people would be asked to evacuate the building quickly.
Slow people who can evacuate would be evacuated but if they are too slow they would be asked to find a 'Safe Haven'*
*A safe haven is a place reinforced to protect against specific hazards, such as fire, smoke or structural collapse.

Large Scale Evacuations

Most large-scale evacuations in the past have been due to military attacks, most modern ones have been because of natural disasters.

I have not done the evacuation procedure on every single natural disaster yet, as it would take more time.
Hopefully some of it has been covered in Jaek Wern's posts.

In conclusion, even evacuations have a standard operating procedure towards them, even though the common population might not know of it.

-Ham

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

method to predict earthquakes : electricity conductivity measurements in the soil (looking for water masses). Not very reliable. Was tried in Greece 25 years ago... VAN method

volcano : via earthquake statistics and magma chamber angular measurements.

tsunami : none. Only observation with buoys and warning system can help (1 h forecast, enough to evacuate a beach)

flooding : a few hours delay once it has rained. See rain prediction for 24 to 48 h delay.

Lots of methods involve extrapolating data from a past trend (it has been raining for the last 6 hours, therefore the river level will go up), or looking for existing historical scenarios (like it is exactly as during the 1999 great flood, same pattern, same area, same consequences).

Earth Scientists Use Fractals to Measure and Predict Natural Disasters

College Park, MD (January 30, 2002) Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals.

A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems.
A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole.

Earthquakes and tsunamis can be predicted with the use of animals. Usually, before earthquakes, many animals' and insects' behaviors, such as toads, elephants and more, become erratic. They would try to break out the cages and chains, wanting to escape. Toads and other insects will come out of their usual hiding places such as drains, holes etc. in large groups.

Hurricanes, tornadoes and cyclones can be predicted easily with the use of advanced meterological and satellite systems. The technology will track down the speed, size, direction of the winds, and warnings will then be given out.

Floods can be predicted with water level tracking systems placed on buoys in the waters. They will measure the speed of current, water level and others. Once the water level reaches a dangerous level, warnings will be given. Meteorological stations will also record the amount of rainfall to make sure it does not flood the lands.

Volcanic eruptions are predicted with the initial tremors before the huge eruption itself. Researchers and vulcanologists will be sent to the volcano site to monitor the activities of the volcano that signals any sign of eruption. The radius of the danger zone can be easily calculated based on previous eruptions, the type and size of the volcano.

Avalanches, landslides and mudflows can be predicted with a sense of precaution. One should quickly evacuate after heavy snows and rains as these natural disasters may follow after that.

However, disasters such as lightning strikes (thunderstorms), fires and such cannot be predicted, but can be prevented.

Disasters such as solar flares, meteroid crashes and other astronomical events can be predicted, but might not be prevented.

Volcanoes

Volcanologists use many instruments to help them predict eruptions. Here are some exapmles:

Luigi Palmieri invented a seismograph in 1856 while working near Italy's Mt. Vesuvias. He wanted a way to predict eruptions, and knew that tremors were usually felt before an eruption. The seismograph uses a pendulum to record movement of the ground below it. The squiggly lines recorded on paper by a seismograph are called a seismogram.

The tiltmeter is a sensor that uses a laser beam to find the rising or lowering of magma levels by measuring changes in ground elevation.

Earthquakes

Nobody has been able to predict earthquakes reliably enough and over short enough time scales to allow the evacuation of threatened cities. Some scientists say that so many factors decide whether a fault will rupture that earthquakes could be unpredictable.

One basic idea behind quake prediction is that faults send out subtle but detectable warnings before they slip. Scientists have looked at a host of potential warning signals, or "precursors," includingforeshocks, weird animal behavior, and changes in the water table, stream flow, well levels, and patterns of electrical currents in the ground.

Droughts

Predicting drought depends on our ability to forecast precipitation and temperature. Scientists don't know how to predict drought a month or more in advance for most parts of the world.

Scientists are studying how interacting weather events, or teleconnections, can influence the formation of various regional and global weather patterns. Because these patterns tend to be repeated, studying their occurrence can help us improve our ability to predict changes in climate, particularly in the tropics.

Floods

Several types of data can be collected to assist hydrologists predict when and where floods might occur. The first and most important is monitoring the amount of rainfall occurring on a realtime(actual) basis. Second, monitoring the rate of change in river stage on a realtime basis can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. Third, knowledge about the type of storm producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity, areal extent, etc., is valuable for determining possible severity of the flooding. And fourth, knowledge about the characteristics of a river's drainage basin, such as soil-moisture conditions, ground temperature, snowpack, topography, vegetation cover, impermeable land area, etc., can help to predict how extensive and damaging an impending flood might become.

nat.lok

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

4/17/10,

This is my research on volcanoes as we are making a model of a volcano. I apologise for forgetting to buy the plasticine this week. Marcus and I will do most of the model making while Nat n Yan Hern will focus on the powerpoint.
PS[pls dont just throw the whole chunk of info on the blog, it will make those doing ppt job much easier. thanks :)]

basic intro on volcanoes

A volcano is an opening in a planet's surface or crust which allows hot magma, ash and gases to escape from below the surface.

Damage it does
Volcanoes are the greatest producers of CO2 in the world. However, their presence is good if they are dormant as the soil tends to be extremely fertile in the area. During eruption, there are often shockwaves of sound, a wave of ash and flying molten rock. Underwater volcanoes are often the cause of tsunamis. Though lava have killed a small number of people, the majority of damage to society a volcano does is economic, agriculture and settlements can be ruined.A caldera can cause widespread destruction and immense loss of life, destroying for dozens of miles in every direction and creating an ashfall spreading over hundreds of thousands of square miles, killing much of what lives in the affected area, fortunately those volcanoes erupt once every several hundred thousand years

Lim Jaek Wern 21 recorder

Saturday, April 17, 2010