welcome to the blog of the rebellion .

4/20/10,

method to predict earthquakes : electricity conductivity measurements in the soil (looking for water masses). Not very reliable. Was tried in Greece 25 years ago... VAN method

volcano : via earthquake statistics and magma chamber angular measurements.

tsunami : none. Only observation with buoys and warning system can help (1 h forecast, enough to evacuate a beach)

flooding : a few hours delay once it has rained. See rain prediction for 24 to 48 h delay.

Lots of methods involve extrapolating data from a past trend (it has been raining for the last 6 hours, therefore the river level will go up), or looking for existing historical scenarios (like it is exactly as during the 1999 great flood, same pattern, same area, same consequences).

Earth Scientists Use Fractals to Measure and Predict Natural Disasters

College Park, MD (January 30, 2002) Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals.

A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems.
A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole.

Earthquakes and tsunamis can be predicted with the use of animals. Usually, before earthquakes, many animals' and insects' behaviors, such as toads, elephants and more, become erratic. They would try to break out the cages and chains, wanting to escape. Toads and other insects will come out of their usual hiding places such as drains, holes etc. in large groups.

Hurricanes, tornadoes and cyclones can be predicted easily with the use of advanced meterological and satellite systems. The technology will track down the speed, size, direction of the winds, and warnings will then be given out.

Floods can be predicted with water level tracking systems placed on buoys in the waters. They will measure the speed of current, water level and others. Once the water level reaches a dangerous level, warnings will be given. Meteorological stations will also record the amount of rainfall to make sure it does not flood the lands.

Volcanic eruptions are predicted with the initial tremors before the huge eruption itself. Researchers and vulcanologists will be sent to the volcano site to monitor the activities of the volcano that signals any sign of eruption. The radius of the danger zone can be easily calculated based on previous eruptions, the type and size of the volcano.

Avalanches, landslides and mudflows can be predicted with a sense of precaution. One should quickly evacuate after heavy snows and rains as these natural disasters may follow after that.

However, disasters such as lightning strikes (thunderstorms), fires and such cannot be predicted, but can be prevented.

Disasters such as solar flares, meteroid crashes and other astronomical events can be predicted, but might not be prevented.

Volcanoes

Volcanologists use many instruments to help them predict eruptions. Here are some exapmles:

Luigi Palmieri invented a seismograph in 1856 while working near Italy's Mt. Vesuvias. He wanted a way to predict eruptions, and knew that tremors were usually felt before an eruption. The seismograph uses a pendulum to record movement of the ground below it. The squiggly lines recorded on paper by a seismograph are called a seismogram.

The tiltmeter is a sensor that uses a laser beam to find the rising or lowering of magma levels by measuring changes in ground elevation.

Earthquakes

Nobody has been able to predict earthquakes reliably enough and over short enough time scales to allow the evacuation of threatened cities. Some scientists say that so many factors decide whether a fault will rupture that earthquakes could be unpredictable.

One basic idea behind quake prediction is that faults send out subtle but detectable warnings before they slip. Scientists have looked at a host of potential warning signals, or "precursors," includingforeshocks, weird animal behavior, and changes in the water table, stream flow, well levels, and patterns of electrical currents in the ground.

Droughts

Predicting drought depends on our ability to forecast precipitation and temperature. Scientists don't know how to predict drought a month or more in advance for most parts of the world.

Scientists are studying how interacting weather events, or teleconnections, can influence the formation of various regional and global weather patterns. Because these patterns tend to be repeated, studying their occurrence can help us improve our ability to predict changes in climate, particularly in the tropics.

Floods

Several types of data can be collected to assist hydrologists predict when and where floods might occur. The first and most important is monitoring the amount of rainfall occurring on a realtime(actual) basis. Second, monitoring the rate of change in river stage on a realtime basis can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. Third, knowledge about the type of storm producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity, areal extent, etc., is valuable for determining possible severity of the flooding. And fourth, knowledge about the characteristics of a river's drainage basin, such as soil-moisture conditions, ground temperature, snowpack, topography, vegetation cover, impermeable land area, etc., can help to predict how extensive and damaging an impending flood might become.

nat.lok

Tuesday, April 20, 2010